When Markets Stop Believing in Quick Fixes: Oil Crosses $100 as Conflict Expectations Shift
Oil futures settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022, while the S&P 500 faltered—a combination that signals something important about how markets are reassessing the Iran conflict. This isn't about the price spike itself. It's about what that spike reveals: investors are no longer pricing in a quick resolution.
Bottom Line
The $100 oil threshold matters less than what it reveals: markets have stopped believing in a near-term resolution to the Iran conflict. This isn't panic—it's recalibration. Investors are adjusting their timelines and risk models, which means businesses and policymakers will too. The expectation shift precedes the actual economic impacts, and that shift is what's worth watching now.
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